To create your first forecast, follow these steps:
1.Go to https://coincharted.com/login/ and login to your account.
2.Then go to the prediction page .predict/com.CoinCharted and choose your preferred currency.
3.Then scroll down the page to see the simulation results that are computed daily and find the simulation with the least prediction error to use in building the simulation (MAPE).
4 .Build the best performing simulation using the same settings shown in the “Daily Simulation Test Result”
Get Results:
- First make sure that the prediction error (Step 3) is similar to the error you saw in the “Daily Simulation Test Result” table (Step 4). To do this, go down to the end of the table and look at the graph titled Average Forecast Error.
- If the average prediction error is as low as 2% “recommended” you can consider this simulation as “good” and start looking at the simulation’s predictions. But if the average prediction error is too high, you should go back to coincharted.com/predict and create another simulation.
- General rule: the further away the expected point, the more difficult it is to predict. Therefore, you should always consider near predictions more seriously than long ones.
- Scroll up and see the price prediction in the first chart on the page and when you place your mouse pointer over tomorrow’s price, you will see the percentage difference between today’s price and the forecast price tomorrow.
- It is safe to always have a buy and sell criterion, which means that you do not buy or sell if the expected price of tomorrow is slightly higher or slightly lower than today’s price.
- In this guide, we will use a safer method and set a security level when buying or selling equal to the value of the average forecast error in the simulation. Which means that we will only buy if the expected price tomorrow is 2.136% higher than today’s price and sell only if the expected price tomorrow is 2.136% lower than today’s price.
